Scientists have detected a marked acceleration in global warming over the past decade

A new analysis shows that since the mid‑2010s, the planet has been heating up significantly faster than in previous decades.

Researchers estimate that in recent years the average rate of warming has nearly doubled, reaching around 0.35 °C per decade compared to less than 0.2 °C per decade between 1970 and 2015. The work was carried out by a team affiliated with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, using five major global temperature datasets: NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, and ERA5.

Instead of simply comparing “raw” temperatures, the scientists first removed the influence of natural variability such as El Niño events, volcanic eruptions, and changes in solar activity, which can temporarily obscure the underlying trend. For the statistical analysis they used two approaches: fitting a quadratic trend to the full observational record and applying a piecewise linear model that automatically identifies when the slope changes.

Both methods independently pointed to a breakpoint around 2013–2015, after which the linear warming trend became noticeably steeper. According to the authors’ estimates, in recent years the anthropogenic warming rate has reached about 0.34–0.42 °C per decade, depending on the dataset, whereas previously it hovered around 0.2 °C.

The acceleration appears consistently in all five independent temperature records and remains statistically significant at above 98% confidence, regardless of the analysis method. Even after correcting for the strong El Niño and peak solar activity, 2023 and 2024 remain the two warmest years on record in the adjusted series.

This suggests that the observed “surge” is not a random spike but a sustained strengthening of the long‑term warming trend. The authors emphasize that the main goal of the study was to robustly confirm the change in warming rate, rather than to fully explain its causes.

At the same time, independent assessments by other research groups indicate that reduced emissions of cooling aerosols — such as sulfur compounds and other particles that previously helped to partially “shield” the planet from incoming solar radiation — may be playing an important role. If the current pace of warming continues, calculations show a high likelihood that the global average temperature will permanently exceed 1.5 °C above pre‑industrial levels by the end of this decade.

What happens beyond that will depend on how quickly the world manages to bring CO₂ and other greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels down to zero