Survivorship Bias: Why Kind Dolphins and Bullet-Ridden Planes Are Lying to Us

Let's continue developing our critical thinking skills. We’ve already learned how to spot AI-generated fakes and how to approach various conspiracy theories. Today, we’ll examine one of the most dangerous cognitive biases—one that directly affects how we make decisions and assess risks.

You’ve probably heard stories like these: "Bill Gates dropped out of Harvard and became a billionaire, so you don't need a degree," "My grandpa smoked a pack a day and lived to be 90, so tobacco isn't that harmful," or "They used to build things to last—just look at ancient temples!"

All these statements have one thing in common: they sound logical but are absolutely false. These are classic examples of Survivorship Bias—a cognitive distortion that leads us to incorrect conclusions because we only look at the "winners" and completely ignore the "losers."

The Story That Saved Thousands of Lives

The most textbook example of survivorship bias comes from World War II. It’s the story of a mathematician who outsmarted the generals.

In 1943, the US and British Air Force commands faced a major problem: bombers were returning to base riddled with bullet holes from German anti-aircraft guns. The losses were staggering. The military decided to reinforce the planes' armor, but they couldn't armor the entire fuselage—the planes would become too heavy to fly.

Engineers analyzed the damage on the returning aircraft. It turned out that most of the bullet holes were on the wings, the fuselage, and the tail. The military's logic was ironclad: "Since these areas get hit the most, we need to reinforce them."

But Hungarian mathematician Abraham Wald, from the Statistical Research Group, clutched his head. He declared: "You need to put the armor where there are NO bullet holes."

The generals were shocked, but Wald explained:

1. You are only looking at the planes that returned.
2. Since they made it back with holes in their wings, it means hits to the wings are not critical. The plane can still fly with them.
3. However, there are no planes at the base with bullet holes in the engines or the cockpit. Why? Because when they get hit there, they don't make it back. They are sitting at the bottom of the English Channel.

Wald realized that the absence of data is also data. The military reinforced the engines and cockpits, and the percentage of returning aircraft increased dramatically.

Survivorship Bias in Our Everyday Lives

We make Wald’s mistake every day without even noticing it. Here are three areas where it distorts our reality.

1. The Myth of "Ultimate Success" We walk into a bookstore and see shelves lined with biographies of successful businessmen: "How to Be Steve Jobs," "Richard Branson's Secrets." We read their advice: take risks, drop out of school, believe in yourself.

Where the error lies: We don't see books titled "I Also Took a Risk, Dropped Out, Took Out a Loan, Went Bankrupt, and Now I Drive a Taxi." For every Mark Zuckerberg who dropped out of college and created a massive social network, there are thousands of startup founders who did the exact same thing and ended up with nothing. By studying only success stories, we miss the full picture of the risks involved. The "graveyard" of failed startups is silent, while the survivors shout about their victories.

2. "Kind Dolphins" There is a popular belief that dolphins are incredibly smart and kind creatures who save drowning people by pushing them toward the shore.

Where the error lies: We only hear the stories of those whom the dolphins pushed toward the shore. Those whom the dolphins pushed away from the shore (into the open ocean) will never be able to tell us anything. From a statistical standpoint, a dolphin might simply be playing with an object in the water, pushing it in a random direction. But the "survivors" create the myth of salvation.

3. "They Used to Build Things to Last!" Walking through Rome or St. Petersburg, we admire centuries-old buildings and exclaim: "Look at this quality! They really knew how to build back then! Not like today’s new developments that fall apart after 20 years."

Where the error lies: We are comparing the best examples of the past with the average examples of the present. In ancient times, people also built many bad, crooked, and unreliable houses. They just... fell apart. Only the most durable structures have survived to our time (survivorship bias of buildings). In 500 years, our descendants will look at some skyscraper built in 2026 and say, "In the 21st century, they built things to last, not like they do now."

How to Avoid the Trap?

Survivorship bias is dangerous because it instills false optimism. It makes us think that success is a guaranteed pattern and that taking risks is safe.

To see reality clearly, you need to learn to ask Abraham Wald’s question: "Where are the ones that didn't return?"

• Before mimicking an idol, think about how many people did the exact same thing but failed.
• When analyzing someone else’s success, look not only at what they did, but at what they didn't do—the things that ruined others.
• Remember: the information you don't have is often more important than the information sitting right in front of you.

Try to evaluate any information as objectively as possible, and seek out all the facts that will help you make the best possible decisions when issues arise. And, of course, be extremely careful when playing with dolphins in the open sea.