Our Civilization Might Be One of the First in the Universe

I recently published an article titled “Where Is Everybody?: What the Fermi Paradox Is and Why the Universe Is Silent.” It discusses scientists’ thoughts regarding the existence of other civilizations besides our own. In the comments, a user suggested that we haven’t encountered actual evidence of our alien counterparts because we are ourselves one of the first advanced civilizations. I thought this was unlikely, as logically, over tens of billions of years, there surely would have been many other intelligent extraterrestrial civilizations. However, after studying this topic in detail, I realized I was wrong. Let’s delve into this question in more detail based on several key scientific concepts and recent studies.

It must be emphasized right away: there is no single, generally accepted number. All numerical estimates are the result of complex statistical models that depend on initial assumptions. However, we can examine the most authoritative recent studies that provide specific figures.

Here are numerical estimates from the most influential works to date:

1. The Oxford Group Model (Sandberg, Drexler, and Ord, 2018)

This is perhaps the most famous study that attempted to provide a numerical estimate for the Fermi paradox. They took the Drake equation, but instead of plugging in point values (as was done previously), they used scientific data on the uncertainty of each parameter (e.g., star formation rate, fraction of planets in the habitable zone, etc.), representing them as probability distributions. Then, they ran a simulation using the Monte Carlo method.

Their results are staggering:

• The probability that we are alone in our Milky Way galaxy ranges from 53% to 99.6%.
• The probability that we are alone in the entire observable Universe ranges from 39% to 85%.

How does this answer your question? If we are the only civilization in the Galaxy, then we are by definition the “first” (as well as the last). Thus, according to this model, the probability that we fall into the category of “one of the first” (including the “only one” option) is between 53% and 99.6%.

2. David Kipping’s Model (2020)

David Kipping used Bayesian analysis to estimate the probability of the emergence of life and intelligence, based solely on Earth’s timeline. His model doesn’t give a direct answer to the question “what is the probability that we are first?”, but it gives numerical estimates for the key “Great Filter” parameter.

• Probability of abiogenesis (origin of life): Odds are more than 9:1 in favor of this being a common occurrence on planets with Earth-like conditions. This suggests that simple life in the Universe is likely not rare.
• Probability of the emergence of intelligence: Odds are estimated at approximately 3:2 in favor of intelligence being a very rare event.

What does this mean in numbers? Kipping’s model says that even if the Universe is full of planets with simple life, only a minority of them (perhaps around 40% or less) will eventually spawn an intelligent civilization. If the emergence of intelligence is the main barrier, this number indirectly confirms the high probability that we are among the first to overcome this barrier.

3. Avi Loeb’s Cosmological Model

This model is not so much statistical as it is based on physics and astronomy. It doesn’t give a probability in percentages, but uses other numbers to demonstrate our “early” position.

• The Sun is a relatively massive type of star that will live for approximately 10 billion years. The most common stars—red dwarfs—will exist for up to 10 trillion years.
• Most potentially habitable planets in the Universe have not yet formed. They will form in the future around these long-lived stars.
• Loeb estimates that the general habitable era of the Universe has only just begun. We appeared in the first ~0.1% of the total time when life can (theoretically) exist.

Numerical interpretation: If one were to randomly choose a moment in time in the Universe’s habitable history, the probability of landing in our era would be vanishingly small. The fact that we exist right now makes us extremely early “anomalies.”

Summary Table of Numerical Estimates

Final Conclusion in Numbers

If we try to synthesize these results into one answer, the most direct numerical estimate is the result of the Oxford group’s work:

The probability that our civilization is the only one in the Milky Way (and therefore one of the first) is estimated by modern statistical models to be in the range of 53% to 99.6%.

This means that the scenario in which we are space pioneers is not just possible, but is the most likely from a mathematical point of view, based on the data we have today.

We might not be absolutely the first, but we are definitely in the vanguard, in the first wave of cosmic intelligence. This is both an inspiring and terrifying thought, placing a huge responsibility upon us.